A proposed overhaul of U.S. census rules could make millions of children harder to count in 2030, worsening an undercount that already left more than 1.5 million children out of the 2020 census.
The Census Bureau proposal, published September 10, would limit the population used for congressional apportionment to U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents, excluding many people with temporary visas, asylum seekers and undocumented immigrants. The bureau is also considering a legal-status question, which population researchers warn could discourage some immigrant families from responding or lead them to omit household members. In 2024, about 18.3 million U.S. children lived with at least one immigrant parent, including 15.5 million who were born in the United States.
Another proposed change would determine a person’s “usual residence” by where they spent the most days from January 3 through April 1 of the census year, with tax records potentially used as supporting evidence. That approach could create confusion for children who divide their time between separated parents, relatives or multiple households. Children under 18 were undercounted by an estimated 2.1% in 2020, while the rate reached 5.4% for children under 5, the highest of any age group.
Public comments on the proposal are due October 13, 2026, and the rules could face legal challenges if adopted.