Brazil’s presidential election will go to an October 25 runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after Bolsonaro narrowly led the first round without winning a majority.
With more than 99% of ballots counted, Bolsonaro had roughly 47% of the vote, compared with about 45% for Lula. The result surprised several pre-election surveys that had generally shown Lula with a small first-round advantage. Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and has presented himself as the heir to his father’s conservative political movement.
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted in connection with a plot to overturn the 2022 election result. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive presidential term and will now have three weeks to consolidate support from voters whose candidates were eliminated. Both campaigns are expected to focus on crime, living costs, economic policy, and Brazil’s relationship with the United States and China.
The runoff will determine whether Brazil remains under Lula’s left-leaning government or returns presidential power to the Bolsonaro camp.