Iranian threats to close shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz have complicated U.S.-Iran negotiations as Washington says the waterway is effectively open and oil flows have nearly recovered.
On October 7, a senior adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander said Tehran would soon block routes it considers illegal, including a southern passage running along Oman’s coast. Iran says its armed forces retain full control of the strait and that restrictions will remain until Washington accepts its demands, which include relief from military and economic pressure. The warning came hours after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had “lost complete control” of the waterway and that oil exports were approaching prewar levels.
U.S. officials and Iran are therefore presenting sharply different accounts of whether commercial shipping has been restored or remains subject to an Iranian blockade. Available data suggest regional crude exports have increased, but the figures include shipments using alternate routes, transfers at sea and other methods that do not necessarily show normal traffic through Hormuz. Iranian officials argue that only a small number of vessels are using the passage, far below its prewar volume.
The dispute over which routes ships may use has become a central obstacle in negotiations, while the strait’s importance to global energy markets raises the risk that further restrictions could unsettle oil prices and maritime insurance.