The IMF’s October 2026 outlook projects global growth of 3.1% this year and inflation of 4.7%, warning that risks are tilted downward as conflict, debt and uncertainty about artificial intelligence test the world economy.
Released on October 13, the forecast is slightly higher than the Fund’s July growth estimate of 3.0%, but below the 3.5% expansion recorded in 2025; growth is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2027. The IMF says investment tied to artificial intelligence, private-sector adaptation and financial buffers have helped activity withstand geopolitical disruptions, including the war in the Middle East. But higher energy and food costs are pushing inflation up, which the Fund expects to ease to 4.1% in 2027.
The outlook is uneven: energy-importing economies outside the technology supply chain face particular strain, while some economies are benefiting from technology investment or favorable trade conditions. The Fund warns that the cushions supporting growth are narrowing, leaving the global economy more exposed to conflict escalation, renewed trade tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities and a reassessment of AI expectations. Stronger AI investment and productivity gains, or easing geopolitical and trade tensions, could instead lift growth.
The IMF urges governments to rebuild fiscal room and keep any help for households facing higher food and energy bills temporary and targeted.