The entry of Ethiopian federal forces and their allies into Aksum is the latest sign that Tigray’s ceasefire has given way to a wider struggle over who governs the region—and whether the fighting will reach beyond Ethiopia.
Urban gains and unsettled rural ground
Federal troops and the Tigray Peace Force entered Aksum on October 12, though rival Tigrayan fighters remained in nearby mountains, leading federal forces to pause their advance after taking major towns. Taking a city can shift control without ending resistance in the countryside, highlighting the unresolved terms of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that left disputed territory, disarmament, and displaced returns unsettled.
Fractured factions and widening combat
Internal political divisions also fractured Tigray, culminating in the TPLF ending the interim administration while the breakaway Tigray Peace Force allied with federal troops against rival Tigrayans. The conflict soon spread across Tigray and into neighboring Afar and Amhara, accompanied by an alliance of seven armed groups seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The shadow of an interstate clash
The most dangerous uncertainty involves Eritrea, where soured relations with Ethiopia over the peace settlement and Red Sea access have triggered disputed claims of cross-border troop movements and casualties. Meanwhile, civilians face renewed displacement and disrupted aid, alongside reports of casualties from shelling in southern Tigray.
Federal forces now face the challenge of holding captured urban centers while TPLF leaders pledge to fight on from outside. Without diplomatic progress, fighting near the border threatens to turn a domestic contest into a direct confrontation with Eritrea.