China’s economy grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter, above forecasts, as strong exports helped make up for weak domestic demand and a falling property market, reducing pressure for immediate large-scale stimulus.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported on October 19 that growth rose from 4.3% in the second quarter. It reported that the economy grew 4.6% in the first nine months of the year. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 4.4%.
GDP rose 1.2% compared with the previous quarter, also above forecasts. Demand for exports, especially technology goods connected to investment in artificial intelligence, helped support economic activity. Industrial output grew 5.5% in September.
Retail sales rose 1.1% that month, a modest gain. This showed that consumer spending remained weaker than demand from abroad. Investment was a more troubling sign.
Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months. Property investment dropped 20.6%. Beijing’s growth target for 2026 is 4.5% to 5%.
The stronger-than-expected quarter may make broad new stimulus less urgent. Targeted support has been introduced. The stronger headline growth gives policymakers some relief.
But continued weakness in consumer spending and real estate means the recovery remains uneven and depends on exports.