Brazilians are choosing between Lula’s center-left course and Flávio Bolsonaro’s conservative project, while a more right-leaning Congress will shape what either winner can do.
A close and polarized race
The runoff followed an unexpectedly strong first round for Flávio Bolsonaro. On October 4, he won about 47% of the vote to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45%; neither reached the majority needed to win outright. In 2022, Lula narrowly defeated Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro. After Jair’s supporters tried to overturn that result, Jair was convicted for his role in a coup plot and imprisoned. His son has since become the family’s presidential standard-bearer.
Voters have also focused on the cost of living, household finances and public safety. Flávio has argued that Lula has not controlled crime or made life affordable. Lula points to social programs and economic gains as reasons to keep him in office. More than 33 million people did not vote in the first round, and the three-week runoff campaign sought to win over voters whose candidates were eliminated or who stayed home. A final survey reported the candidates level. When reports reviewed here were published, polls were still open and the result was not known.
Two different policy paths
Lula’s program promises to continue social policies and focus on reducing inequality, building industry and sustainability. Flávio has campaigned on spending cuts, a tougher approach to crime and a smaller state. He has also promised to pardon his father if elected.
In their final debate, Lula called Flávio’s proposed spending cuts reckless, while Flávio blamed Lula for high prices and organized crime. These were campaign claims, not settled assessments of what either candidate could deliver.
Congress will limit either winner
Voters have also elected a more conservative Congress. The Liberal Party, led by Flávio’s camp, gained seats. Right-wing and centrist lawmakers together could command a lower-house majority and may be able to assemble the larger blocs needed for constitutional changes. Some incoming lawmakers want to curb the Supreme Court’s powers or seek the removal of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the case against Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio’s proposed pardon would put the presidency at the center of that legal and institutional dispute. The steps would depend on lawmakers and courts, not just the president.
Lula would need to bargain with a legislature less aligned with his Workers’ Party to advance budgets and legislation. Flávio might find more allies, but a broad right-and-center coalition would still need to agree on priorities. Analysts caution that his promise of fiscal restraint could be harder to enact than to campaign on, given public-debt concerns and the need for legislative support. Lula would face pressure to fund social and industrial priorities while reassuring markets about public finances.
The stakes beyond Brazil
Lula has emphasized national sovereignty, varied trade relationships and a larger role for Brazil among developing countries. Flávio is aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump and signals a closer relationship with Washington. A change in government could affect Brazil’s ties with the United States and China, as well as its positions on climate and regional policy. Trade ties, fiscal pressures and Congress would all shape how far campaign promises go.
The count was to begin after polls closed, and the eventual winner is due to take office in January. Attention will then turn to cabinet choices, negotiations with Congress and whether contentious campaign promises become government proposals. The vote can set Brazil’s direction, but it cannot settle the disputes over crime, the economy and democratic institutions behind the close contest.