Israel’s election has left Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc ahead in the count but without an obvious path to a governing majority.
Why the count is not settled
By late Wednesday, October 28, partial-count reports gave Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot 48, and Arab-led parties 19. About 85% of ballots had been counted, with hundreds of thousands of special ballots—including votes from soldiers and diplomats—still outstanding. The totals could change, but neither main camp had the 61 seats needed to govern.
Israelis vote for party lists, not directly for prime minister. Seats are allocated according to each qualifying list’s share of the national vote, if it clears the 3.25% threshold. The leader of the largest party does not automatically take office: a prospective prime minister must win enough Knesset support. Small parties can gain bargaining power, while votes for parties below the threshold produce no seats.
The blocs face difficult choices
Likud appears to have held up better than some of its partners, but a party’s strength is not the same as its bloc’s. Likud won 32 seats in the 2022 election, and Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition later had 68 at its peak; current projections leave his camp well short. The vote follows four turbulent years, including the October 7, 2023, attack and subsequent wars. Voters also faced questions about investigating security failures, military service for ultra-Orthodox men and the courts’ power. Netanyahu’s domestic corruption charges add to the stakes, but the count cannot show how much any issue drove voters.
Netanyahu has called for a strong right-wing government, citing his party’s performance and his security partnership with U.S. President Donald Trump. He needs eight more seats than his bloc has and has rejected relying on Arab-led parties. Eisenkot’s grouping needs even more support; its members span a wide political range, and he has ruled out serving in a Netanyahu-led government, even under a rotation deal. Several opposition politicians also oppose cooperation with Arab parties, though some now urge a rethink.
Arab parties hold key seats
The Arab parties’ projected 19 seats make them pivotal, but they do not form a ready-made coalition. Strong turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel helped increase their representation. Arab politicians told Reuters they wanted to use that leverage to secure equality, funding and action on crime. Ra’am’s leader has said he would join an Eisenkot-led government, while Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has left open supporting it from outside a coalition, citing disagreement with the opposition’s backing of military campaigns. A cabinet with Arab parties would be contentious, and a minority government would need to negotiate support on key votes.
What happens after the count
Other options include a deal with parties now opposed to Netanyahu, a broader unity arrangement, or a government without dependable majority support. None is assured, as each would require leaders or parties to soften positions they used to win support. If talks fail, another election remains possible. Officials must complete the count and publish formal results, expected by November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party representatives and ask the candidate he judges most able to form a government to try. That candidate gets 28 days, with possible extensions of up to 14 more. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister, and government decisions, including on security, continue.
The outcome could shape military-service rules, judicial reform, an inquiry into October 7, and Arab citizens’ influence in national politics. A prolonged caretaker period or another election would leave those questions unsettled while the government continues to face security decisions. The partial count shows who is leading; negotiations must show whether anyone can govern.