Scientists behind a new global climate report warn that warming above 1.5°C would increase the risk of lasting damage to oceans, glaciers and permafrost, but rapid emissions cuts can still limit the harm.
More than 70 scientists from nearly 30 countries produced the 2026/2027 edition of 10 New Insights in Climate Science, which summarizes recent research to inform policy and public decisions. Ocean warming and sea-level rise can continue for centuries because the climate system responds slowly to heat that has built up over time. How much future change occurs depends on how quickly greenhouse-gas emissions fall.
Lowering temperatures after an overshoot would not undo all the damage. Oceans, glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost can retain changes for long periods. The report estimates that human-caused warming reached 1.37°C in 2025.
At the current rate, the world could pass 1.5°C around 2030. The report warns that a higher peak or a longer period above the threshold would increase risks and leave fewer options for adapting. Returning temperatures to 1.5°C would also require emissions to fall beyond net zero.