The United Nations warned on October 20 that nearly 19.2 million people in Afghanistan, about 38 percent of the population, are projected to face acute food insecurity from November 2026 through April 2027, including five million at emergency levels.
The forecast uses the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. Emergency is Phase 4 on the IPC scale. The projection is not a declaration of famine.
The outlook is worse than in September and October, when 15.9 million people faced hunger at crisis level or worse, including 3.4 million in emergency conditions. That is also higher than the 17.4 million people projected to face acute food insecurity during the same winter period a year earlier. UN officials say the crisis is not only about whether food is available, but also whether families can afford it and earn enough to buy it.
Households are under pressure from low buying power, unemployment, inflation, trade disruptions and large-scale returns. Declining humanitarian assistance is making it harder for them to cope. At the same time, better rainfall and agricultural production have supported food availability.
The IPC analysis also projects that 4.04 million children aged six months to five years will need treatment for acute malnutrition in 2027. More than one million are expected to have severe cases. FAO and WFP are calling for food aid and emergency agricultural support to arrive on time before winter.
Nutrition needs are rising, and services are struggling to keep up.